Market Insight-Global AdBlue Market Overview 2022
The Global AdBlue Market Size Is Projected to Reach US$ 9.87 Billion by 2028, from US$ 4.73 Billion in 2021, at a CAGR of 12.48% during 2022-2028.– Bossonresearch.com
With the development of the market, high-quality AdBlue products will gradually become the mainstream of consumption. Enterprises tend to buy more reliable AdBlue. The quality of AdBlue directly affects the work efficiency of the transportation industry. High-quality AdBlue can reduce potential maintenance costs and time costs.
Key trends in market development also include a shift in supply channels to filling station models. In the future, with the continuous increase of customer demand and the diversification of sales, matching with gas stations or independent urea filling stations will become the development trend of the industry, the supply channels will be further improved, and the convenience for users to purchase vehicle urea will be greatly improved. will also further reduce
At the same time, with the further strengthening of supervision in various countries and regions, the enhancement of national environmental protection awareness and the upgrading of consumption awareness, a large and stable AdBlue customer market will be formed.
Figure Global AbBlue Market Size (million USD)
Source: Bossonresearch.com, 2022
Driving Factors
Diesel vehicles remain in high demand in the medium term
With the comprehensive layout of infrastructure and logistics network, the global demand for diesel engines will show an upward trend year by year. Increasing demand for heavy vehicles in industry, construction, etc. is the factor driving the growth of the AdBlue market.
According to the data of IMARC Group, the global diesel engine market will reach USD 220.8 billion in 2022. Looking ahead, IMARC Group expects the market to reach USD 274.9 billion by 2028, with a growth rate (CAGR) of 3.63% during 2023-2028.
The benefits of diesel are still attractive for many scenarios. Increased torque, better performance and improved fuel economy. The popularity of diesel cars is not slowing down in many countries, although supplies may be reduced. The era of diesel may not be over - the focus has just shifted to the realm of buying habits.
For medium and long-distance vehicles, and especially for long-distance trucks, the use of diesel engines is still a good choice to achieve environmental balance. For a standard four-door sedan, the diesel engine delivers better power and emits 10 to 20 percent less CO2 than a petrol engine, and lower than a petrol hybrid. From the perspective of the entire production process of diesel, from the oil well to the cylinder, and then from the cylinder to the wheels, the carbon dioxide impact of a diesel engine is lower than that of a gasoline engine.
Although the emergence of new energy medium-sized and heavy-duty vehicles may have a certain impact on the market, there are still several unresolved issues: 1) The choice of models for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles in the market is relatively limited; 2) The availability of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles Higher overall cost of ownership (especially higher upfront costs compared to ICE vehicles); 3) Insufficient consumer demand; 4) Inconvenient charging and refueling.
In diesel vehicles, most engine manufacturers have adopted Selective Catalytic Reduction (SC) technology, which requires Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) to function. In cars equipped with SCR technology, AdBlue is stored in a separate tank.
Due to AdBlue's significant role in diesel exhaust treatment, it will continue to benefit from the high usage of diesel engines worldwide.
Boom in Construction
Housing is an important part of the construction industry. The economies of Asian countries and the United States have improved significantly, and people are migrating to urban areas and spending on housing as populations and living standards improve. The 10-country regional grouping consisting of the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Singapore, Laos and Myanmar highlighted the US$250 billion in construction in 2019, according to the New Building Materials and Construction World magazine ASEAN. potential. Therefore, the ASEAN construction market is expected to maintain steady growth in the coming years. Demand for construction equipment is increasing, resulting in increased demand for engine treatment fluids used in construction equipment.
Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) was introduced to the construction equipment sector in 2010. In North America, SCR technology has started to be used in diesel equipment for off-highway equipment, so the consumption of DEF in the off-highway field has increased. Rising demand for DEF in the construction equipment segment is expected to create growth opportunities for the diesel exhaust fluid market over the forecast period.
Popularization of Diesel Engines in Agriculture
In agriculture, many heavy equipment use diesel engines. Diesel engine powered equipment is used in almost every aspect of the agricultural sector, from growing crops to watering to fertilizing to harvesting to processing. According to Central DIESEL, diesel engines power more than 66 percent of agricultural equipment, transport 90 percent of produce produced annually, and pump 20 percent of all farm water in the United States. With the popularity of diesel engines in agriculture, the increased use of diesel engines will drive the growth of the AdBlue market.
Diesel engines are used to power most agricultural equipment in the United States and other countries around the world. They are employed in growing, tending, harvesting, processing and distributing crops. Some of the reasons they are used for alternative power supplies include:
1) They offer the ideal combination of energy efficiency, power and performance, as well as durability and reliability needed for agricultural operations at the best price.
2) They provide high power output at low speeds, allowing greater control over equipment operation.
3) They generate less waste heat, which translates into better thermal efficiency.
4) They support heavier loads and run longer without damaging moving parts, which makes them ideal for heavy-duty applications commonly found in agriculture.
Environmental Benefits of Urea Solutions
Because the sales of heavy-duty and medium-duty vehicles have increased due to the evolving transportation needs to support the movement of goods and population growth, which largely contributes to air pollution.
Road transport is the largest source of urban air pollution. Nitrogen oxides are produced by car engines along with tiny particles that, when combined with other pollutants in the atmosphere, can harm sensitive lung tissue in animals and humans. In 2018, over 39% of NOx and 10% of primary PM2.5 and PM10 emissions in the EU came from road transport. These percentages are much higher in cities because traffic is often the main source of air pollution. Road transport is estimated to have caused around 70,000 premature deaths in the EU-28 in 2018.
Urea solution treatment is injected into the exhaust gas, which can filter more than 90% of the harmful gas emissions of nitrogen oxides into steam and nitrogen, thereby reducing pollution. The use of AdBlue to reduce the emission of harmful gases will provide lucrative opportunities in the market against the backdrop of increasing environmental awareness globally, and the environmental benefits of urea solutions will drive the growth of the AdBlue market.
Government policy to tighten emission standards
AdBlue can significantly reduce emissions of environmentally harmful nitrogen oxides (NOx), thereby helping to meet strict emission limits set by various standards. With the implementation of stricter exhaust emission standard policy, higher requirements are put forward for the exhaust emission of motor vehicles and other related machinery, and the market space of chemical products such as urea for vehicles required in the exhaust gas treatment system will be further opened.
Beginning in November 2022, Europe is working hard to promote stricter vehicle exhaust emission standards. Compared with "Euro 6", the "Euro 7" standard is more stringent, reducing nitrogen oxide emissions by 35% for small cars and vans, and 56% for buses and trucks. At the same time, the "Euro 7" proposal also limits the particulate matter emissions of tires and brakes for the first time, and this limit will also cover electric vehicles. By 2035, Euro 7 will reduce overall NOx emissions from cars and vans by 35% compared with Euro 6, and by 56% from buses and trucks compared with Euro VI. Meanwhile, particles from tailpipes will be reduced by 13 percent from cars and vans, by 39 percent from buses and trucks, and by 27 percent from car brakes. In the wake of the Dieselgate scandal, the Commission introduced new tests to measure emissions on roads (the RDE approach) and increased market surveillance powers for member states and the European Commission to ensure vehicles are as clean as Euro 6 expects.
Since 2000, China has continuously formulated new motor vehicle emission standards. From China 1 to China 5, each standard increase can reduce the pollution of single vehicles by about 30% to 50%. The currently implemented China VI a emission standard will be implemented in phases on July 1, 2019, while the China VI b emission standard, which is stricter than the Euro VI emission standard, will be officially implemented on July 1, 2023. At the same time, compared with the National V, the National VI b emission standard has increased by about 40%-50% on its basis. And AdBlue is the main consumable of the SCR system, which is used to eliminate nitrogen oxides in the emission. The urea consumption of National IV, National V, and National VI vehicles is about 3%, 5%, and 8% of their diesel consumption, respectively, and the urea consumption of a single vehicle has increased significantly.
Emission monitoring has become more stringent
In order to achieve environmental protection goals faster, governments of various countries are using stricter emission monitoring in addition to issuing stricter exhaust emission standards.
For example, the Chinese government is promoting the use of OBD regulatory mechanisms. OBD refers to the vehicle emission diagnosis and detection system, which can read vehicle data parameters and information, monitor engine operating conditions and the working status of exhaust after-treatment devices. Under the original standard, although the regulatory department requires that the vehicle must be equipped with the OBD system, it does not know the operating status of the OBD system. Under the new National VI regulations, manufacturers need to ensure that vehicles and engines are equipped with remote management OBD systems when they leave the factory, and upload the read vehicle emission data to the government's online monitoring platform. At the same time, when the vehicle emission control system fails to work normally, the driver alarm system will prompt the driver that there is a fault. If the warning is ignored continuously, the drivability limiting system will be activated and the vehicle will not work normally. With the improvement of the supervision of the OBD detection system, it is expected that the penetration rate of AdBlue will increase significantly in recent years.
End-use Insights
Government policies of stricter emission standards and stricter emission monitoring will be the key drivers for the growth of the AdBlue market. Increased sales of heavy and medium-duty vehicles due to evolving transportation needs supporting movement of goods and population growth, which contributes largely to air pollution. Road traffic is the largest source of urban air pollution. Car engines produce nitrogen oxides, as well as tiny particles that, when combined with other pollutants in the atmosphere, can harm sensitive lung tissue in animals and humans. AdBlue can significantly reduce emissions of environmentally harmful nitrogen oxides (NOx), thereby helping to meet strict emission limits imposed by various standards. With the implementation of stricter exhaust emission standard policy, higher requirements are put forward for the exhaust emission of motor vehicles and other related machinery, and the market space of chemical products such as urea for vehicles required by the exhaust gas treatment system will be further opened. In addition, in order to achieve environmental protection goals more quickly, governments of various countries have adopted stricter emission monitoring in addition to promulgating stricter exhaust emission standards.
Another trend worth watching is the drop in urea prices. As the most important raw material of AdBlue, urea has a very important price. In 2022, the price of urea will rise sharply due to multiple factors. However, as both natural gas and coal prices fell, so did the cost of urea. Looking ahead, urea trading prices are expected to decline slowly over 12 months. At the same time, the increase in the penetration rate of hybrid or pure electric vehicles will hinder the development of the AdBlue market. The world is going through a climate emergency, with global warming and green issues topping the list. Therefore, fleets need to present a greener image. Businesses once invested in diesel company cars have turned to hybrid and electric alternatives, while rental companies are offering customers hybrid or gasoline models. This will have a huge impact on diesel car sales. The demand for Diesel Exhaust Fluid is directly related to the sales of diesel vehicles, therefore, the decrease in sales of diesel vehicles is expected to restrain the growth of the AdBlue market over the forecast period.
Global AbBlue Market: Competitive Landscape
According to our calculations, in 2021, the indicators CR5 and HHI related to AdBlue market concentration will be 59.48% and 13.88% respectively. This sAhows a relatively low market concentration. Due to the low barriers to entry, the entire AdBlue market is still in fierce competition. It is expected that in 2022, the market concentration will decrease. Key players in the current market include Yara, BASF, CF Industries, GreenChem, Mitsui Chemicals, Kelas, Borealis L.A.T, Sinopec Group, Nissan Chemical, CNPC, Sichuan Meifeng, ENI S.p.A., Total, Cummins, Shell, BP, Novax, SKW Piesteritz , Liaoning Rundi.
Key players in the AbBlue Market include:
Yara
BASF
CF Industries
GreenChem
Mitsui Chemicals
Kelas
Borealis L.A.T
Sinopec Group
Nissan Chemical
CNPC
Sichuan Meifeng
ENI S.p.A.
Total
Cummins
Shell
BP
Novax
SKW Piesteritz
Liaoning Rundi
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